Melton
- Current member
- Steve McGhie (Labor)Retiring (announced 23 September 2025)
Steve McGhie is retiring; Labor’s candidate is Broden Borg.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 54.4% to Labor’s 45.6%, a margin of 4.4 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Fiona Adin-JonesAnimal Justice
- Jarrod BinghamLiberal
- Broden BorgLabor
- Matthew KatselisOne Nation
- Veronika LevchenkovaGreens
- Marlene WestFamily First
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What has changed
- Steve McGhie is retiring, as announced on 23 September 2025.
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. The order of Labor, the Coalition and One Nation is open; an earlier claim that the Coalition finishes third is unconfirmed. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
The market makes One Nation the favourite here, at about 47%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, the Coalition would lead; the market makes One Nation the favourite. The swing comparison assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. The market suggests One Nation could be one of them instead.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 54.6% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 45.4%, a margin of 4.6 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Steve McGhie Labor37.7%
- Graham Watt Liberal24.3%
- Ian Birchall Independent9%
- Jarrod James Bingham Independent5.8%
- Praise Morris Greens4.5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McGhie | Labor | 14,193 | 37.7% | +3.3 |
| Graham Watt | Liberal | 9,155 | 24.3% | +7.8 |
| Ian Birchall | Independent | 3,403 | 9% | -2.9 |
| Jarrod James Bingham | Independent | 2,186 | 5.8% | New |
| Praise Morris | Greens | 1,711 | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Paul Blackborrow | Shooters | 1,682 | 4.5% | New |
| Ashley Alp | Democratic Labour | 1,629 | 4.3% | +1.5 |
| Richard Brunt | Family First | 946 | 2.5% | New |
| Fiona Adin-James | Animal Justice | 743 | 2% | -0.7 |
| Tony Dobran | Freedom | 717 | 1.9% | New |
| Samantha Jane Donald | Justice | 663 | 1.8% | New |
| Jasleen Kaur | New Democrats | 242 | 0.6% | New |
| Lucienne Ciappara | Health Australia | 219 | 0.6% | New |
| Jason Spencer Perera | Independent | 130 | 0.3% | New |
Final two in the count: Steve McGhie (Labor) 54.4% · Graham Watt (Liberal) 45.6%. 37,619 formal votes, 4,716 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d