Mordialloc

Current member: Tim Richardson (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 58.2%41.8% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 49.2%50.8% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 50.8% to Labor’s 49.2%, a margin of 0.8 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Alex BreskinGreens
Mahee HossainVictorian Socialists
Paul O'HalloranLiberal
Tim RichardsonLaborSitting member
Nadia TicehurstOne Nation

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 58.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 41.8%, a margin of 8.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Tim Richardson Labor44%
Phillip Pease Liberal31.4%
Daniel Lessa Greens10.3%
Sarah O'Donnell Independent7.4%
Chi Vo Animal Justice2.4%

3 other candidates, 4.6% between them.

See all results

Mordialloc, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Tim Richardson	Labor	19,398	44%	-6.8
Phillip Pease	Liberal	13,829	31.4%	+0.3
Daniel Lessa	Greens	4,526	10.3%	+2.7
Sarah O'Donnell	Independent	3,240	7.4%	New
Chi Vo	Animal Justice	1,070	2.4%	-0.6
Deborah Albrecht	Freedom	955	2.2%	New
Patrick Lum	Family First	887	2%	New
Phil Reid	Independent	154	0.4%	New

Final two in the count: Tim Richardson (Labor) 58% · Phillip Pease (Liberal) 42%. 44,059 formal votes, 2,035 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d