Bellarine

Current member: Alison Marchant (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 58.5%41.5% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 49.5%50.5% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 50.5% to Labor’s 49.5%, a margin of 0.5 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Alison MarchantLaborSitting member
Ross McRaeOne Nation
Mitch PopeGreens
Callum WhiteheadLiberal
Dom WilliamsIndependent

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 41%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, the Coalition would lead; the market makes Labor the favourite.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 58.5% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 41.5%, a margin of 8.5 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Alison Marchant Labor42.6%
Donnie Grigau Liberal33.1%
Rachel Semmens Greens11.7%
Sarah Fenton Independent4.6%
Adam Cardilini Animal Justice2.3%

4 other candidates, 5.6% between them.

See all results

Bellarine, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Alison Marchant	Labor	20,103	42.6%	-7.1
Donnie Grigau	Liberal	15,617	33.1%	-2.4
Rachel Semmens	Greens	5,537	11.7%	+2.6
Sarah Fenton	Independent	2,158	4.6%	New
Adam Cardilini	Animal Justice	1,088	2.3%	-2.2
Guy Manuell	Family First	1,033	2.2%	New
Brett Anthony Ritchie	Justice	770	1.6%	New
Kylee Muse	Freedom	458	1%	New
Brendan Taylor	Angry Victorians	389	0.8%	New

Final two in the count: Alison Marchant (Labor) 56.9% · Donnie Grigau (Liberal) 43.1%. 47,153 formal votes, 2,156 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d