Greenvale
- Current member
- Iwan Walters (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 51.9% to Labor’s 48.1%, a margin of 1.9 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Rosanna FurinaAnimal Justice
- Chris MooreOne Nation
- Jim OverendLiberal
- Kirill SmelovVictorian Socialists
- Iwan WaltersLaborSitting member
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: We still treat this as a possible three-way contest. Neither a lean towards Labor nor the final two is established.
Betting market
The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 42%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, the Coalition would lead; the market makes Labor the favourite.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 57.1% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 42.9%, a margin of 7.1 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Iwan Walters Labor41.5%
- Usman Ghani Liberal25.4%
- Maria Bengtsson Family First7.4%
- Mutullah Can Yolbulan Victorian Socialists6.9%
- Fatma Erciyas Independent6.4%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iwan Walters | Labor | 15,628 | 41.5% | -18.2 |
| Usman Ghani | Liberal | 9,568 | 25.4% | +0.8 |
| Maria Bengtsson | Family First | 2,778 | 7.4% | New |
| Mutullah Can Yolbulan | Victorian Socialists | 2,582 | 6.9% | +2.1 |
| Fatma Erciyas | Independent | 2,416 | 6.4% | New |
| Cristina Santa-Isabel | Greens | 2,194 | 5.8% | -1.1 |
| Rosanna Furina | Animal Justice | 1,295 | 3.4% | New |
| Lauren Styles | Freedom | 1,225 | 3.3% | New |
Final two in the count: Iwan Walters (Labor) 56.9% · Usman Ghani (Liberal) 43.1%. 37,686 formal votes, 3,952 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d