Mulgrave
- Current member
- Eden Foster (Labor)Standing again
Eden Foster (Labor) won the 2023 by-election, keeping the seat for Labor.
Swing comparison
Labor lean
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat. It starts from the 2022 result, not the 2023 by-election.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 51.8% to the Coalition’s 48.2%, a margin of 1.8 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.
Announced candidates
- Connor BuchananVictorian Socialists
- Eden FosterLaborSitting member
- Paul SchofieldGreens
- Charles TranLiberal
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor v Coalition
What has changed
- 2023 by-election: Eden Foster (Labor) won. (pollbludger.net)
What remains uncertain
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2023 by-election
Eden Foster (Labor) won. Its vote figures aren’t in our data yet. (pollbludger.net)
The swing comparison above still starts from the 2022 result, shown next.
The 2022 general election
Labor received 60.8% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 39.2%, a margin of 10.8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Daniel Andrews Labor51%
- Ian Cook Independent18%
- Michael Piastrino Liberal17.2%
- Robert Lim Greens5.1%
- Aidan McLindon Freedom2.2%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Andrews | Labor | 19,365 | 51% | -8.0 |
| Ian Cook | Independent | 6,838 | 18% | New |
| Michael Piastrino | Liberal | 6,528 | 17.2% | -11.3 |
| Robert Lim | Greens | 1,930 | 5.1% | -1.3 |
| Aidan McLindon | Freedom | 824 | 2.2% | New |
| Jane Foreman | Family First | 749 | 2% | New |
| David Mould | Animal Justice | 419 | 1.1% | +1.0 |
| Maree Wood | Democratic Labour | 327 | 0.9% | -1.2 |
| Fotini Theodossopoulou | Independent | 305 | 0.8% | New |
| Andrew King | Independent | 173 | 0.5% | New |
| Joseph Toscano | Independent | 155 | 0.4% | New |
| Anne Moody | Independent | 146 | 0.4% | New |
| Howard Lee | Independent | 120 | 0.3% | New |
| Ezra J. D. Isma | Independent | 92 | 0.2% | New |
Final two in the count: Daniel Andrews (Labor) 60.8% · Michael Piastrino (Liberal) 39.2%. 37,971 formal votes, 3,603 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d