Bentleigh

Swing comparison

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 58%42% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 49%51% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 51% to Labor’s 49%, a margin of 1 point.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

Labor v Coalition

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 51%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

The 2022 general election

Labor received 58% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 42%, a margin of 8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

1 other candidate, 1.7% between them.

See all results

Bentleigh, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Nick Staikos	Labor	20,656	45.8%	-4.0
Debbie Taylor-Haynes	Liberal	16,401	36.4%	+2.9
Alana Galli-McRostie	Greens	4,845	10.7%	+2.7
Paul Ryan	Family First	1,331	3%	New
David Harris	Animal Justice	1,098	2.4%	+0.7
Simon Gnieslaw	Independent	789	1.7%	New

Final two in the count: Nick Staikos (Labor) 58% · Debbie Taylor-Haynes (Liberal) 42%. 45,120 formal votes, 1,408 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details