Malvern

Current member: Michael O'Brien (Liberal)Retiring (announced 9 September 2025)

Michael O'Brien is retiring; the Liberals’ candidate is Amelia Hamer.

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 41.9%58.1% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 32.9%67.1% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 67.1% to Labor’s 32.9%, a margin of 17.1 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Edward BodeOne Nation
Amelia HamerLiberal
Georgia KatsikisGreens
Gavin LeonardVictorian Socialists
Christine ZigourasIndependent

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What has changed

Michael O'Brien is retiring, as announced on 9 September 2025.

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 79%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 58.1% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 41.9%, a margin of 8.1 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Michael O'Brien Liberal52.5%
Darren Natale Labor26.2%
Mitchell Fuller Greens15.7%
Amelia Natoli Animal Justice2.5%
Steve Stefanopoulos Independent1.6%

1 other candidate, 1.6% between them.

See all results

Malvern, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Michael O'Brien	Liberal	21,438	52.5%	+0.9
Darren Natale	Labor	10,686	26.2%	-3.4
Mitchell Fuller	Greens	6,390	15.7%	+2.6
Amelia Natoli	Animal Justice	1,005	2.5%	-0.4
Steve Stefanopoulos	Independent	643	1.6%	New
Judy Schmidt	Family First	639	1.6%	New

Final two in the count: Michael O'Brien (Liberal) 58.3% · Darren Natale (Labor) 41.7%. 40,801 formal votes, 1,136 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d