Albert Park
- Current member
- Nina Taylor (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Liberals and the Greens. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 52.2% to the Coalition’s 47.8%, a margin of 2.2 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. The Greens could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Colleen BolgerVictorian Socialists
- Andrew CookLiberal
- Tammy LindrumOne Nation
- Sonya SemmensGreens
- Nina TaylorLaborSitting member
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Liberal / Greens
What remains uncertain
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: With the swing, Labor would lead the Liberals by 2.2 points. But the Greens are also competitive and it’s unclear who would be knocked out first, so we don’t name a likely winner.
Betting market
The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 51%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 61.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 38.8%, a margin of 11.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Nina Taylor Labor36.4%
- Lauren Sherson Liberal29.8%
- Kim Samiotis Greens20.9%
- Georgie Dragwidge Independent5.9%
- Cassandra Westwood Animal Justice3.1%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Taylor | Labor | 14,254 | 36.4% | -7.1 |
| Lauren Sherson | Liberal | 11,659 | 29.8% | -1.5 |
| Kim Samiotis | Greens | 8,178 | 20.9% | +4.5 |
| Georgie Dragwidge | Independent | 2,294 | 5.9% | New |
| Cassandra Westwood | Animal Justice | 1,207 | 3.1% | -0.8 |
| Lance Smart | Liberal Democrats | 534 | 1.4% | New |
| Elizabeth Antunovic | Freedom | 518 | 1.3% | New |
| Viorel Bradea | Family First | 466 | 1.2% | New |
Final two in the count: Nina Taylor (Labor) 60.9% · Lauren Sherson (Liberal) 39.1%. 39,110 formal votes, 1,396 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d