Bulleen

Current member: Matthew Guy (Liberal)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 44.1%55.9% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 35.1%64.9% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 64.9% to Labor’s 35.1%, a margin of 14.9 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Tim DaleLabor
Matthew GuyLiberalSitting member
Tomas LightbodyGreens
Greg RubleeIndependent
Dimitrios TafidisVictorian Socialists

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 77%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 55.9% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 44.1%, a margin of 5.9 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Matthew Guy Liberal48.1%
Ian Rogers Labor32.7%
Kellie Stafford Greens10.7%
Voula Patrikios Freedom2.7%
Jason Stokes Family First2.4%

3 other candidates, 3.5% between them.

See all results

Bulleen, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Matthew Guy	Liberal	20,645	48.1%	-3.8
Ian Rogers	Labor	14,052	32.7%	-4.0
Kellie Stafford	Greens	4,576	10.7%	-0.4
Voula Patrikios	Freedom	1,172	2.7%	New
Jason Stokes	Family First	1,014	2.4%	New
Elnaz Jafari	Animal Justice	867	2%	+1.8
Sanjeev Sabhlok	Independent	419	1%	New
David Vincent	Independent	214	0.5%	New

Final two in the count: Matthew Guy (Liberal) 55.9% · Ian Rogers (Labor) 44.1%. 42,959 formal votes, 2,326 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d