Ringwood
- Current member
- Will Fowles (Independent)Retiring (announced 28 July 2026)
Will Fowles is retiring; an independent’s candidate is Prue Cutts.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Liberals and an independent. We haven't confirmed who is standing yet. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 51.5% to Labor’s 48.5%, a margin of 1.5 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. An independent could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Prue CuttsIndependent
- Jack GardnerVictorian Socialists
- Rachel HalseLabor
- Nick McGowanLiberal
- Amy MillsGreens
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Liberal / Independent
What has changed
- Will Fowles is retiring, as announced on 28 July 2026.
What remains uncertain
- The seat has changed hands since the result shown here, through a by-election or a member changing party.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Our worksheet records the sitting member as an independent who used to be Labor. Whether they’ll stand, their personal vote and the final two all need checking.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 57.5% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 42.5%, a margin of 7.5 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Will Fowles Labor39%
- Cynthia Watson Liberal33.8%
- Reuben Steen Greens15.5%
- Gary Ryan Democratic Labour3.7%
- Richard Griffith-Jones Family First3.1%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fowles | Labor | 17,851 | 39% | -3.0 |
| Cynthia Watson | Liberal | 15,467 | 33.8% | -9.9 |
| Reuben Steen | Greens | 7,105 | 15.5% | +2.0 |
| Gary Ryan | Democratic Labour | 1,684 | 3.7% | New |
| Richard Griffith-Jones | Family First | 1,396 | 3.1% | New |
| Nick Rowe | Animal Justice | 1,212 | 2.6% | +2.4 |
| Robyn M. Siemer | Freedom | 1,038 | 2.3% | New |
Final two in the count: Will Fowles (Labor) 58.3% · Cynthia Watson (Liberal) 41.7%. 45,753 formal votes, 1,676 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d