Ripon
- Current member
- Martha Haylett (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 56% to Labor’s 44%, a margin of 6 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Jo ArmstrongNationals
- Taylah Brennan-JonesVictorian Socialists
- Donna BuxtonOne Nation
- Tim DrylieGreens
- Martha HaylettLaborSitting member
- Megan ReadLiberal
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. The Coalition’s lead with the swing can’t tell us which of the three parties would be knocked out first. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
We saw only some of Sportsbet's runners for this seat on 16 October 2026, so no chance can be worked out from them.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 53% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 47%, a margin of 3 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Martha Haylett Labor38.5%
- Louise Staley Liberal36.1%
- Luke Smith Shooters8.5%
- Earl James Greens6%
- Craig George Family First3.1%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martha Haylett | Labor | 16,321 | 38.5% | -2.4 |
| Louise Staley | Liberal | 15,305 | 36.1% | -0.6 |
| Luke Smith | Shooters | 3,606 | 8.5% | +3.1 |
| Earl James | Greens | 2,524 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Craig George | Family First | 1,316 | 3.1% | New |
| Holly Sitters | Animal Justice | 1,145 | 2.7% | +0.3 |
| Wren Louise Wilson | Justice | 940 | 2.2% | -1.8 |
| Wayne Rigg | Independent | 872 | 2.1% | New |
| Bernard Quince | Independent | 312 | 0.7% | New |
Final two in the count: Martha Haylett (Labor) 53% · Louise Staley (Liberal) 47%. 42,341 formal votes, 3,111 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d