Bass
- Current member
- Jordan Crugnale (Labor)Retiring (announced 2 October 2025)
Jordan Crugnale is retiring; Labor’s candidate is Chris Buckingham.
Swing comparison
Coalition advantage
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 58.8% to Labor’s 41.2%, a margin of 8.8 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.
Announced candidates
- Chris BuckinghamLabor
- Rochelle HalsteadLiberal
- Chris JobeVictorian Socialists
- Nikole SchellekensOne Nation
- Sophie ThornGreens
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor v Coalition
What has changed
- Jordan Crugnale is retiring, as announced on 2 October 2025.
What remains uncertain
- A party has been reported as targeting this seat. That's a sign to watch it, not a result.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Betting market
The market makes One Nation the favourite here, at about 50%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, the Coalition would lead; the market makes One Nation the favourite. The swing comparison assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. The market suggests One Nation could be one of them instead.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 50.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 49.8%, a margin of 0.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Jordan Crugnale Labor32.6%
- Aaron Brown Liberal30.1%
- Brett Tessari Nationals13.3%
- Callum Bugbird Greens8.1%
- Mark O'Neill Democratic Labour3.5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Crugnale | Labor | 13,478 | 32.6% | -4.2 |
| Aaron Brown | Liberal | 12,482 | 30.1% | -13.3 |
| Brett Tessari | Nationals | 5,506 | 13.3% | New |
| Callum Bugbird | Greens | 3,369 | 8.1% | +1.9 |
| Mark O'Neill | Democratic Labour | 1,465 | 3.5% | +1.7 |
| Martin Verhagen | Family First | 1,164 | 2.8% | New |
| Elly Mousellis | Animal Justice | 1,085 | 2.6% | +1.5 |
| Marcus Munday | Freedom | 1,013 | 2.4% | New |
| Jeni Jobe | Independent | 970 | 2.3% | New |
| Meg Edwards | Independent | 872 | 2.1% | New |
Final two in the count: Jordan Crugnale (Labor) 50.3% · Aaron Brown (Liberal) 49.7%. 41,404 formal votes, 3,135 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d