Skip to content
Election explorer

Berwick

Current member
Brad Battin (Liberal)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison
Labor 45.3%54.7% Liberal
With the selected swing
Labor 36.3%63.7% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 63.7% to Labor’s 36.3%, a margin of 13.7 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

  • Brad BattinLiberalSitting member
  • Nalinda GunawardanaVictorian Socialists
  • Rana KhanLabor
  • Vincenzo De PaolisFamily First
  • Michael PiastrinoOne Nation
  • Roshan De SilvaGreens

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What remains uncertain

  • A party has been reported as targeting this seat. That's a sign to watch it, not a result.
  • The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 74%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 54.7% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 45.3%, a margin of 4.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

  • Brad Battin Liberal45.2%
  • Malik Zaveer Labor35.8%
  • Hayley Perry Greens9.7%
  • Kerry Haupt Freedom3.5%
  • Joel Van Der Horst Family First3.4%
1 other candidate, 2.3% between them.
See all results
Berwick, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShareChange since 2018
Brad BattinLiberal20,03145.2%-3.2
Malik ZaveerLabor15,87435.8%-6.1
Hayley PerryGreens4,2979.7%+2.1
Kerry HauptFreedom1,5703.5%New
Joel Van Der HorstFamily First1,4883.4%New
Katherine DolheguyAnimal Justice1,0292.3%New

Final two in the count: Brad Battin (Liberal) 54.7% · Malik Zaveer (Labor) 45.3%. 44,289 formal votes, 1,875 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d