Tarneit

Current member: Dylan Wight (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Labor lean

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 62.3%37.7% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 53.3%46.7% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 53.3% to the Coalition’s 46.7%, a margin of 3.3 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Andrew ElsburyWest Party
Leah Van KoulenVictorian Socialists
Rifai RaheemGreens
Maurita RahnAnimal Justice
Venkat Ram UpparlapalleLiberal
Walter VillagonzaloOne Nation
Dylan WightLaborSitting member

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 63%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 62.3% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 37.7%, a margin of 12.3 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Dylan Wight Labor46.6%
Preet Singh Liberal26.8%
Clare Miller Greens7.4%
Claudio Uribe Victorian Socialists5.3%
Thomas Jeffrey Family First5.1%

4 other candidates, 8.9% between them.

See all results

Tarneit, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Dylan Wight	Labor	18,173	46.6%	-9.7
Preet Singh	Liberal	10,438	26.8%	+1.0
Clare Miller	Greens	2,883	7.4%	-0.3
Claudio Uribe	Victorian Socialists	2,072	5.3%	New
Thomas Jeffrey	Family First	1,977	5.1%	New
Jaydeep Patel	New Democrats	1,176	3%	New
Erum Maqsood	Freedom	882	2.3%	New
Maurita Rahn	Animal Justice	843	2.2%	New
Aijaz Moinuddin	Independent	534	1.4%	New

Final two in the count: Dylan Wight (Labor) 62.6% · Preet Singh (Liberal) 37.4%. 38,978 formal votes, 2,946 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d