South Barwon
- Current member
- Darren Cheeseman (Independent)Hasn’t said whether they’ll stand again
Darren Cheeseman hasn’t said whether they’ll stand again.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Liberals and an independent. We haven't confirmed who is standing yet. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 50.8% to the Coalition’s 49.2%, a margin of 0.8 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. An independent could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Josh GeardOne Nation
- Madilyn GormanVictorian Socialists
- Freya HedleyIndependent
- Ron NelsonIndependent
- Libby PettitLiberal
- Izzy ScherrerGreens
- Rebecca ThistletonLabor
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Liberal / Independent
What remains uncertain
- The seat has changed hands since the result shown here, through a by-election or a member changing party.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Our worksheet records the sitting member as an independent who used to be Labor. A 0.8-point Labor lead with the swing can’t reflect that changed field.
Betting market
We saw only some of Sportsbet's runners for this seat on 16 October 2026, so no chance can be worked out from them.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 59.8% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 40.2%, a margin of 9.8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Darren Cheeseman Labor44.2%
- Andrew Katos Liberal32.1%
- Genevieve Frances Dawson-Scott Greens12.7%
- Alan Barron Family First3%
- Leone Bates Democratic Labour2.4%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Cheeseman | Labor | 19,969 | 44.2% | +5.8 |
| Andrew Katos | Liberal | 14,516 | 32.1% | -6.5 |
| Genevieve Frances Dawson-Scott | Greens | 5,719 | 12.7% | +4.3 |
| Alan Barron | Family First | 1,338 | 3% | New |
| Leone Bates | Democratic Labour | 1,099 | 2.4% | -0.7 |
| Naomi Adams | Animal Justice | 1,076 | 2.4% | -0.7 |
| Jeynelle Marie Dean | Justice | 891 | 2% | New |
| Simone Tomlinson | Freedom | 576 | 1.3% | New |
Final two in the count: Darren Cheeseman (Labor) 59.8% · Andrew Katos (Liberal) 40.2%. 45,184 formal votes, 1,637 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d