Polwarth

Current member: Richard Riordan (Liberal)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 48.2%51.8% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 39.2%60.8% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 60.8% to Labor’s 39.2%, a margin of 10.8 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Jesse HoldenGreens
Hutch HusseinLabor
Anna MalcolmOne Nation
Richard RiordanLiberalSitting member

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 51.8% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 48.2%, a margin of 1.8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Richard Riordan Liberal42.5%
Hutch Hussein Labor29.3%
Hilary McAllister Greens16.7%
Denes C. Borsos Independent4.4%
Hollie Hunter Family First2.5%

2 other candidates, 4.6% between them.

See all results

Polwarth, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Richard Riordan	Liberal	19,540	42.5%	-4.7
Hutch Hussein	Labor	13,484	29.3%	-1.6
Hilary McAllister	Greens	7,661	16.7%	+5.9
Denes C. Borsos	Independent	2,017	4.4%	New
Hollie Hunter	Family First	1,166	2.5%	New
Elisha Atchison	Animal Justice	1,101	2.4%	-1.3
Joseph Vincent Remenyi	Justice	1,033	2.2%	New

Final two in the count: Richard Riordan (Liberal) 51.8% · Hutch Hussein (Labor) 48.2%. 46,002 formal votes, 1,949 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d