Benambra
- Current member
- Bill Tilley (Liberal)Retiring (announced 13 March 2024)
Bill Tilley is retiring; the Liberals’ candidate is Steve Martin.
Our call
Not settled
In 2022 the final two here were the Liberals and an independent. Our swing comparison only covers seats fought between Labor and the Coalition, so it doesn’t apply here.
Announced candidates
- Mike FrueryAnimal Justice
- Steve MartinLiberal
- Lachie McKeemanIndependent
- Graham PartonGreens
- Kellie SheppardOne Nation
- Alex VangalenVictorian Socialists
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Coalition v Independent
What has changed
- Bill Tilley is retiring, as announced on 13 March 2024.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Last time the Liberals beat an independent by 0.9 points, and One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. Both the final two and the winner are open. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 50%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Liberals received 50.9% of the vote between the final two, to an independent’s 49.1%, a margin of 0.9 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Bill Tilley Liberal42.9%
- Jacqui Hawkins Independent31.7%
- Mark Tait Labor13.1%
- Luke Brady Greens3.9%
- Mike Fuery Animal Justice2.8%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Tilley | Liberal | 17,658 | 42.9% | +2.8 |
| Jacqui Hawkins | Independent | 13,038 | 31.7% | +15.6 |
| Mark Tait | Labor | 5,375 | 13.1% | -4.6 |
| Luke Brady | Greens | 1,592 | 3.9% | +0.4 |
| Mike Fuery | Animal Justice | 1,170 | 2.8% | New |
| Janelle Stratton | Family First | 815 | 2% | New |
| Dean Rossiter | Liberal Democrats | 804 | 2% | New |
| Adrian James O'Brien | Freedom | 683 | 1.7% | New |
Final two in the count: Bill Tilley (Liberal) 51.1% · Jacqui Hawkins (Independent) 48.9%. 41,135 formal votes, 2,099 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d