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Election explorer

Victoria 2026State election

Understand the election, starting with your seat.

Covers the 88 Legislative Assembly seats. The Legislative Council isn’t here yet.

The 88 seats

A 9-point swing takes 9 points from Labor’s 2022 share of the vote between the final two and gives them to the Coalition. We apply it in every seat where they were the final two. We chose 9 points for comparison; it isn’t an average of the polls, so the colours are a calculation, not a forecast.

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Last time, 2022

  • 56Labor
  • 28Coalition
  • 4Greens

88 seats · Polling day 28 November 2026

Sources and notes

Figures come from our seat-by-seat worksheet unless a source is linked beside them. For Narracan, the last result is the 2023 supplementary election.

Sources

  1. Poll Bludger: Victorian election guide and pendulumCross-check of the displayed historical margins; not a source of current winners. Information as at 13 October 2026.
  2. Sportsbet: Victorian State Election, seat bettingSportsbet's seat-betting page for the 2026 Victorian State Election, under VIC Politics on sportsbet.com.au. The chances shown here are our calculation from the listed odds, rescaled so each seat's listed runners add to 100%; we don't link to a bookmaker. Retrieved 16 October 2026.
  3. Victorian Electoral Commission: Legislative Assembly district boundaries (Vicmap Admin, State Assembly Polygon 2022)The 88 districts of the 2021 redivision, in force for the 2022 and 2026 elections. CC BY 4.0. Downloaded from the state open-data WFS service (layer state_assembly_2022) and simplified for display. Retrieved 15 October 2026.
  4. VIC 2026: revised seat-by-seat projection worksheet (version 2)Received by us on 15 October 2026. Source of the list of 88 seats, each seat's 2022 result, who could make the final two, who holds each seat, and the seat notes. Information as at 13 October 2026.
Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d