Mornington
- Current member
- Chris Crewther (Liberal)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
In 2022 the final two here were the Liberals and an independent. Our swing comparison only covers seats fought between Labor and the Coalition, so it doesn’t apply here.
Announced candidates
- Ashli BeardsOne Nation
- Chris CrewtherLiberalSitting member
- Melissa GoffinIndependent
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Coalition v Independent
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Last time the Liberals beat an independent by 0.7 points. Whether challengers are returning, and how much support they have now, needs checking before any lean towards the Coalition.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Liberals received 50.7% of the vote between the final two, to an independent’s 49.3%, a margin of 0.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Chris Crewther Liberal42.6%
- Kate Lardner Independent22.4%
- Georgia Fowler Labor22%
- Harry Sinclair Greens6.4%
- Paul Pettitt Freedom2.5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Crewther | Liberal | 17,910 | 42.6% | -8.0 |
| Kate Lardner | Independent | 9,432 | 22.4% | New |
| Georgia Fowler | Labor | 9,246 | 22% | -12.3 |
| Harry Sinclair | Greens | 2,677 | 6.4% | -3.4 |
| Paul Pettitt | Freedom | 1,041 | 2.5% | New |
| Leonie Schween | Animal Justice | 740 | 1.8% | -3.6 |
| Jane Agirtan | Independent | 641 | 1.5% | New |
| Ross Hayward | Family First | 375 | 0.9% | New |
Final two in the count: Chris Crewther (Liberal) 50.7% · Kate Lardner (Independent) 49.3%. 42,062 formal votes, 1,823 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d