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Election explorer

Eltham

Current member
Vicki Ward (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

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Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison
Labor 59%41% Coalition
With the selected swing
Labor 50%50% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be an exact tie, Labor and the Coalition on 50% each.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

  • Rachel BusbridgeGreens
  • Paul ByrnesLiberal
  • Maeve RichesVictorian Socialists
  • Vicki WardLaborSitting member
  • Jessie WeatherleyOne Nation

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

  • The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Our interpretation

  • As at 13 October 2026: Labor’s 9-point margin, less the 9-point swing, leaves nothing between them, so we don’t pick a winner by rounding. An older BludgerTrack call for the seat is out of date.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 44%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 59% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 41%, a margin of 9 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

  • Vicki Ward Labor44.5%
  • Jason McClintock Liberal35.6%
  • Alex Grimes Greens13.5%
  • Hugh Stubley Family First2.6%
  • Catriona Marshall Animal Justice2.3%
1 other candidate, 1.6% between them.
See all results
Eltham, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShareChange since 2018
Vicki WardLabor19,50944.5%-5.2
Jason McClintockLiberal15,61535.6%-1.2
Alex GrimesGreens5,89713.5%+3.1
Hugh StubleyFamily First1,1182.6%New
Catriona MarshallAnimal Justice9952.3%New
Leila KarimiDemocratic Labour7101.6%-0.2

Final two in the count: Vicki Ward (Labor) 58.7% · Jason McClintock (Liberal) 41.3%. 43,844 formal votes, 1,507 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d